Two days ago, I am awake at 05:00. It looks a bit gloomy outside, so I am pondering whether I will need to do my early morning pyjama run, watering the shrubs, and whether I will get a chance to do a little more weedkiller spraying of the gravel driveway today.
I decide to get advice from the electronic friend and helper on my phone, who is always faithfully awaiting a chance to serve.
05:06 - "Siri, what is the forecast today?"
Siri - "Today it will be mostly clear; daytime temperatures will rise to 18degC, with overnight lows of 13degC"
Fair enough - maybe I should keep an extra sweater handy, but that sounds OK. My alarm is set for 06:30, so I can enjoy a preparatory snooze until then. Better just check...
05:10 - "Siri, will it rain today?"
Siri - "There is very little chance of rain"
Righto - that will do nicely.
My snooze is suddenly disturbed by heavy rain hammering on the Velux window above my head. What the...? What is the story now?
06:15 - "Siri, will it rain today?"
Siri - "There is very little chance of rain"
Maybe an alternative approach is required...
06:16 - "Siri, at what time will it rain?"
Siri - "It's raining now"
We have to be grateful, I know, but I may go back to keeping a piece of seaweed in a jam jar on the window-sill.
If the weather forecast says there will be 60% chance of rain …… it will always be right!
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting. I can see that, whether it rains or not, the assessment that it was 60% likely at the outset is not affected or discredited by the arrival of rain. The forecast said "it may rain or it may not", which turned out to be true.
DeleteThe particular case where the forecast says it won't rain and then it does is a different matter, particular if I am deciding how to spend my day, and whether I wish to risk wasting £15 worth of weedkiller! Interesting...
I am reminded of one of the old Asterix stories, in which some passing stranger who arrived during a thunderstorm got a job as the village soothsayer because he correctly predicted that the weather would improve when the storm was over. Tricky stuff, weather.
Ah, but if you took all the predictions of a 60% chance of rain, overall 60% of the time there should have been rain. It would be nice if the Met Office actually published such stats. Of course they would need to be broken down by how far in advance the prediction was made, it should (surely?) get more accurate the closer in time the forecast is for.
DeleteRob - this is all true, and the extreme case is when it is actually raining at this moment. My seaweed-in-a-jar tool shows very clearly if the weed is wet, which is a good clue.
DeleteLucky you didn't water the garden then! lol.
ReplyDeleteThat's right Ray. I don't mind a little wasted time doing unnecessary watering, but I do object very strongly if my weedkilling effort is washed out. I live on a farm, and the guys who own the farm can be made or ruined by getting the planting and harvesting dates wrong - that must be stressful, but I guess they use rather better quality predictors than I do.
DeleteIt fills me with confidence that the UK are embracing AI in a wholesale manner; the largest AI super computer having just been switched on. The news had a story that they are "training" AI to perform operations, image reporting having already been taken over by AI. What can possibly go wrong?
ReplyDeleteWhile surgeons have a less than stellar reputation due to a minority of incompetents and fraudsters ( most operations being carried out successfully if slowly due to waiting lists) I'm not sure I'm ready to be operated on by a glorified pocket calculator.....
Especially as it seems AI has learned to lie......
Rather like your weather forecast, apparently AI when contradicted, makes both excuses and makes stuff up....but then what would you expect from a program that uses the internet.....
So instead of graduate bulls**itters who bluff their way through life, it will be a computer.....
Imagine what arguing with that will be like when you are trying to tell the gas board that you have moved or a relative has died?
"The computer says no....."
BTW I'm still traumatised by the mental picture of your garden attire....just glad you're not a naturist......☺
Neil
In fact I can't remember whether I'm a naturist...
DeleteMy early-morning watering kit of (striped) pyjamas, towel dressing gown, gardening shoes and straw hat is not great on elegance, but it is more clothes than anyone else will be wearing around here on a warm day. I am discussing with my lawyer whether it would be OK to offer a modest photo, to stop any rumours.