Two days ago, I am awake at 05:00. It looks a bit gloomy outside, so I am pondering whether I will need to do my early morning pyjama run, watering the shrubs, and whether I will get a chance to do a little more weedkiller spraying of the gravel driveway today.
I decide to get advice from the electronic friend and helper on my phone, who is always faithfully awaiting a chance to serve.
05:06 - "Siri, what is the forecast today?"
Siri - "Today it will be mostly clear; daytime temperatures will rise to 18degC, with overnight lows of 13degC"
Fair enough - maybe I should keep an extra sweater handy, but that sounds OK. My alarm is set for 06:30, so I can enjoy a preparatory snooze until then. Better just check...
05:10 - "Siri, will it rain today?"
Siri - "There is very little chance of rain"
Righto - that will do nicely.
My snooze is suddenly disturbed by heavy rain hammering on the Velux window above my head. What the...? What is the story now?
06:15 - "Siri, will it rain today?"
Siri - "There is very little chance of rain"
Maybe an alternative approach is required...
06:16 - "Siri, at what time will it rain?"
Siri - "It's raining now"
We have to be grateful, I know, but I may go back to keeping a piece of seaweed in a jam jar on the window-sill.
If the weather forecast says there will be 60% chance of rain …… it will always be right!
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting. I can see that, whether it rains or not, the assessment that it was 60% likely at the outset is not affected or discredited by the arrival of rain. The forecast said "it may rain or it may not", which turned out to be true.
DeleteThe particular case where the forecast says it won't rain and then it does is a different matter, particular if I am deciding how to spend my day, and whether I wish to risk wasting £15 worth of weedkiller! Interesting...
I am reminded of one of the old Asterix stories, in which some passing stranger who arrived during a thunderstorm got a job as the village soothsayer because he correctly predicted that the weather would improve when the storm was over. Tricky stuff, weather.