tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7111053985478999734.post6931147513144856135..comments2024-03-27T15:59:11.066+00:00Comments on Prometheus in Aspic: Compromise in Wargames - (3) Probability: the Ludic Fallacy and Other StuffMSFoyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14470241067504971068noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7111053985478999734.post-72874114588285589762011-05-15T21:35:54.667+01:002011-05-15T21:35:54.667+01:00I think I have a copy of Taylor's book. If I c...I think I have a copy of Taylor's book. If I can find it you can have it. One of the guys at my club was very excited about these ruls when they appeared. Maybe we should have tried them for longer, but there were big probs. Before closing to contact, everyone would go and sit in a corner and do a lot of reading and calculating to see if was a good idea. Dont know if we ever demonstrated it but everyone was sure the guy who knew the rules and the numbers best would win.<br /><br />I remember big argument, someone said Napoleon didnt win battles because he knew casualty rates by heart. Someone else said that Napoleon was one guy who probably did know them in fact. Much laughter, but we were a wargmes club, and didnt get out much otherwise.<br /><br />Interested by this Black Swan. will try to get hold of a copy. I heard of this before, investment models will allow for failure of the almond crop and movement in oil prices but does not allow for 9/11 or the really important things..<br /><br />Good articles by the way. Forgot to mention!<br /><br />LouLouisChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02616884438377290153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7111053985478999734.post-39866333177260869202011-05-14T19:51:06.866+01:002011-05-14T19:51:06.866+01:00My only hang-up with Charge! is the singly-based f...My only hang-up with Charge! is the singly-based figures - I never had the patience, nor (probably) the manual co-ordination to avoid mass fallings-over in such an environment, though the armies do look the business. My recent enthusiasm for using Commands & Colors boardgame rules with my miniatures is because the simplified game procedures allow you to concentate on the battle, and the combat dice are effective and dead easy - surprisingly Old School in feel, for a 21st Century game - suddenly wargames are the same sort of fun they used to be when I started out! <br /><br />To be honest, I would like to think that the rules I use stand up to comparison with real history, but for the most part, any cleverness I have built into my own rules over the years has tended to bog things down rather more than it improved the games.<br /><br />Peter - I would admit (in a whisper) to being an FFA (retired) - I never, ever came across another actuary who was a wargamer, so my best wishes to you!<br /><br />TonyMSFoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14470241067504971068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7111053985478999734.post-21120896207330630192011-05-14T16:38:39.225+01:002011-05-14T16:38:39.225+01:00Yes. . . Too much in the way of mathematics and a...Yes. . . Too much in the way of mathematics and attempts to simulate every single possibility results in very slow games. "Charge!" it is.<br /><br />Best Regards,<br /><br />StokesWSTKS-FM Worldwidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14173042438761572040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7111053985478999734.post-39259580281695675582011-05-14T15:37:37.100+01:002011-05-14T15:37:37.100+01:00I'm both a wargamer and a university instructo...I'm both a wargamer and a university instructor in actuarial science (so I teach 3rd and 4th year course in probability models and I couldn't agree more with what you said. KISS is not only the best in terms of games play but it typically produces better results than the more complex models.<br /><br />Also agree whole-hearttedly on the "Black Swan" although I did want to throw it at the author at times!Peter Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14118894381672707297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7111053985478999734.post-91568914647967325422011-05-14T12:37:29.901+01:002011-05-14T12:37:29.901+01:00Especially if you cease looking at "dead"...Especially if you cease looking at "dead" toy soldiers as being actual casualties and see them as measure of the CE of the unit. Ok, I've laid down 15 toy soldiers, are they dead? wounded? helping their mate to the rear? loading their musket for the 4th time since it was last fired? telling their rosary? Who cares? What we need to know is that another volley like that and the unit will break but the enemy is still strong. Is the prize worth their sacrifice or should you try to pull them back? The enemy has a good position, maybe he won't follow up.<br /><br />It was quite a revelation when I got to dust off my old copy of Charge! and play some games a few years ago, especially in a multi-player situation. Never seen so many gamers suddenly teaching themselves to adhere to military principles, concentration, surprise, maintenance of the aim etc.<br /><br />-RossRoss Mac rmacfa@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04053555991679802013noreply@blogger.com